**ALGERIAN DEMOGRAPHY 2018 Update (July 2019)**

**----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------**

** **

** **

**Algerian demography 2018**

**42.6 Million Inhabitants as of 1 July 2018.**

** **

** **

** **

Source National Office of Statistics (ONS)

publication: N ° 853

As of January 1, 2019, the total resident population in Algeria reached **43 million.**

The year 2018 was characterized by a volume of live births exceeding the threshold of one million births for the fifth consecutive year and a significant increase in the volume of deaths. On the other hand, the volume of registered marriages has continued to decline since 2014.

We are assisting this year a stagnation in the infant mortality rate for the second year in a row, while the stillbirth rate continues to fall sharply. Moreover, life expectancy at birth also increased slightly.

** **

** **

THE POPULATION EVOLUTION

During **2018**, the resident population in Algeria is estimated at 42,578,000 as of July 1. The natural increase recorded during the year reached 845,000 people, with a natural increase rate of 1.99%, recording so a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to 2017.

We notice that this is the first time since 2009 that this rate reaches a level below 2%. Two factors may explain this decline: the decline in the volume of births compared to 2017 and the increase in the volume of deaths.

**Consequently, under the assumption of maintaining the growth rate of 2018, the total resident population would reach 43.9 million as of January 1, 2020.**

** **

THE POPULATION STRUCTURE

A readable summary of the population’s structure by age and gender, on July 1, 2018, given on the table shows that:

- As a result of rising birth rates, the part of the population
**aged under five**increased from**11.9%**to**11.8%**between 2017 and 2018, while the part of the population**aged under 15**continue to increase from**29,7%**to**30.1%**during the same period. - The part of the working-age population (
**15-59**) continues to decline from**61.1% to 60.6%**between 2017 and 2018. - The part of people
**aged 60 and over**rose from**9.1% to 9.3%**over the same period. In volume terms, it reached**3,969,000 people (166,000 more than in 2017).** - The volume of the female population of childbearing age (
**15-49 years**) reached 11.0 million women from 10.9 in 2017.

The evolution in the structure by age affect significantly the level of the demographic dependency ratio, whose indicator is defined as the ratio of the population aged under 15 to those aged 60 and over in relation to the population of economically active age (15-59). This ratio continues to grow to 65.2 per 100 people of working age, up from 63.5 in 2017 and 55 in 2010.

This increase is a result of the birth rate recovery that began in 2003, combined with an increase in life expectancy at birth.

Declined by age groups, it is 49.8 persons under 15 years of age and 15.4 persons over 60 years of age per 100 persons of working age.

In volume terms, the resident population increased from 34,591,000 to 42,578. between July, 1^{st }, 2008 and july, 1^{st} , 2018, which represents a significant increase until 8 million people (7,987,000 people). The superposition of the age pyramids of 2008 and 2018 makes it clear that the demographic transition phase is still ongoing. This transition interprets the widening of the pyramid base, and the narrowing of the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups.

NATALITY and FERTILITY

During** 2018**, we are observing a volume of **live births reaching 1,038,000**, which represents a significant decrease from the level observed in 2017; with a relative decrease of **2%** during this period (compared to a decrease of 0.7% between 2016 and 2017).

The distribution of births by gender interpreted by the masculinity ratio gives **104 boys** per **100 girls**.

The decline in the volume of live births affected the gross birth rate, which dropped by one point (01) from **25.40‰** to **24.39‰** between 2017 and 2018.

The total fertility rate fell by **0.1 percentage points** from 2017 to **3.0 children** per woman.

** **

Neonatal mortality^{1} is estimated at 17.1‰ (18.5‰ for boys and 15.6‰ for girls), while premature neonatal mortality^{2} is estimated at 13.4‰.

MORTALITY

** **

**General mortality**

The year **2018** recorded **193,000 deaths**, an increase of **3,000 **compared to **2017**. The crude mortality rate fell slightly from** 4.55** to **4.53 **over this period.

** In contrast, life expectancy at birth increased by an estimated one-tenth of a percentage point to 77.7 years overall. Represented by gender, it is 77.1 years for men and 78.4 years for women.**

**Infant mortality**

The volume of **child deaths reached 21,846** in **2018**, down nearly **400** from **2017**. For the second year in a row, the infant mortality rate has stagnated at **21.0‰**.Represented by gender, reaching **22.5‰** for **boys** and **19.5‰** for **girls.**

Neonatal mortality^{1} is estimated at **17.1‰** (**18.5‰** for **boys** and **15.6‰** for **girls**), while premature neonatal mortality^{2} is estimated at 13.4‰.

**Infant-juvenile mortality**

The probability of death between birth and the exact age of **5 years** expressed by the infant child mortality quotient increased by two-tenths of a point from 2017, reaching **24.2‰ **.

Represented by gender, this quotient is **25.7‰** for **boys** and **22.6‰** for **girls**.

**Stillbirth**

In **2018**, the number of stillbirths registered by the Civil Registry Offices continues to decrease significantly. Consequently, we recorded **12,712 stillbirths**, a relative decrease of **5.2%** compared to 2017. This decline affected the stillbirth rate, which fell by **0.4 percentage points** between 2017 and **2018** to reach a level of **12.1‰.**

Therefore, the perinatal mortality^{3} rate is estimated at **25.4‰**; **27.6‰** for **boys** and **23.0‰** for **girls.**

** **^{1}Neonatal mortality is defined as the sum of infant deaths in the first month of a child’s life (0-27 days).

^{2}Premature neonatal mortality is defined as the sum of infant deaths during the first week of life of the child (0-6 days).

^{3}Perinatal mortality is defined as the sum of children born without life (stillbirths) and children who died within the 0-6 day age range.

** **

NUPTIALITY

Since its beginning in 2014, the decline in the number of marriages continues in 2018. The Civil Registry Offices registered **332,000 unions **during this year, almost 8,000 less marriages than in 2017.

As a result, **the gross marriage rate** continues to decrease from **8.14‰** to **7.79‰** during this period, corresponding to the level observed **15 years **earlier (2003).

This continued decline emphasizes once again the hypothesis about the impact of the change in the age structure of the population on the decline in the volume of marriages.

Indeed, the **evolution of the population** aged **20 to 34 years **(population where 80% of marriages contract ^{1}), shows a visible decline in the volume of this population since 2015, which increased from **10,997** to **10.758 million** between **2015** and **2018**.

In spite of the fact that the rate of decline in the number of marriages seems to be higher than in this population, as shown in the graph, the correlation between the change in the volume of the population aged between 20 and 34 years and the one of marriages is clearly established.

With the continued decline in the volume of this population in the years to come, and in the absence of other elements that can interfere with this phenomenon, the decline in the volume of marriages will probably continue until 2025-2030.

1) According to the data of the RGPH 2008.

DIVORCE RATE

The number of divorces registered by the Department of Ministry of Justice highlights a volume of **65,690 divorce** cases identified in 2018. The

high divorce rate, expressed as the ratio of divorces to the average population for the year, rose to **1.54** over the same period from **1.57** in

2017.

On the other hand, the divorce rate, which is defined as the ratio between the number of divorces and the number of marriages, contracted in

the same year, increased sharply between **2017** and **2018**, from **19.32%** to 19.80%.